Architect Developer Flipping the CBD

Tweet You have seen these buildings many times, driven past them, and will recognize them from their facades.  However, what was once there is no more.  They were offices, part of the economic fabric of New Orleans, home to businesses which made up the business engine of the CBD. 

Now they are part of a new fabric, nice 2000 thread count fabrics to be exact, which are going into new their new home, which are actually homes.  The conversion of these buildings to residential represents the continuation of a trend that has been underway for several years.  But these properties in particular demonstrate what the early developments predicted, which is the second generation of residential conversion of the New Orleans downtown. 

To witness this transformation is truly inspiring, and this interview will show you why.

http://wgso.com/?powerpress_pinw=16047-podcast

Click the link above to hear the interview.

The Manhattan Theory

Tweet If you are in commercial real estate sales, you have heard this more than once form an out of town real estate rep....."we are going to open 14 stores and we want our flag ship store to be at Veterans and Causeway". And the expectation is that we just make a phone call and owners will fall over themselves to sell us their property.


My response was always "Did you do that in Manhattan? Did you get the corner of 5th and E 59th St.?" Then I proceed with my rant about the island that we call New Orleans. If the island of Manhattan is surrounded by water and the real estate rates are in the stratosphere, then the same metrics would apply to New Orleans. And we ARE surrounded by water, lake to the north, river to the south, gulf to the east and the spillway/swamp to the west. This ain't Texas, you can't just move to the next interstate interchange(there are only 5 eastbound in Metairie, and they are all taken). You could go west on I-10, but you won't reach dry "develop-able" land until Gonzales.

Commercial real estate buyers(and some developers) not familiar with our pricing can not comprehend the values placed on local real estate. And this "value" is represented in many different ways. With some properties it represents a family and the heirs' birthright. It may not be producing a large return, but it may represent decent cash flow if you don't have a mortgage on it.

Or, with most families, the patriarch of the family may have one vision of the future of the property and the heirs another. These are easy to spot. If you see property that has not had a change in use, or updates, repairs, etc. and then one day its gone. Well, guess who inherited the property.

To fully understand the value of good real estate in a densely populated geographical area, such as Manhattan......... or New Orleans, you have to look at the basic fundamentals of commercial real estate investments. First, TIME. These are not flip properties. No one is going to sell for less so that someone can flip it to another buyer. The buyer will find the property and owner without any help. Therefore the cost needs to be analyzed over a longer hold period than the average investment. Look at most of the major properties on the island. Most have been here since the roads were built. Lakeside SC has gone through many changes, but its still there in the same spot, and will most likely be there through our grandchildren's children's life time at a minimum.

Second, current use vs. future value. Of course a snow ball stand on a valuable piece of real estate will not appraise for what the owner is asking, but that's not what they are selling. They are selling the future value of the site. This is the most difficult hurdle for buyers, and me, to understand. We realize that if you put a building on this site, its worth more, but you don't have a building, you have a snowball stand. And this goes back to the "no mortgage" situation....no seller motivation. Plus, do know what the mark up is for snowballs? They can afford to wait.

And waiting is usually the game that is played. If you want to be on St. Charles Ave., well, there is only one St. Charles Ave., so if you want to be there, you pay what is asked. Just like there is only one 5th Ave.

The similarities between Manhattan and New Orleans are not measured in square foot rates, but in demand for limited space.

© Mark Subervielle 8/12/11

Flip This City now on the air!

Tweet Flip This City has taken many twist and turns since its inception.  and now, its on the air.  The kick off show is Wednesday, August 17, 2011, at 3:00pm.  The show highlights individuals and companies who are making things happen.

Want to know who is doing what?
What companies are growing/expanding?
Who is starting up?
What is under construction?
Who is opening up in your neighborhood?

We will discuss this and more. Join us and help Flip This City.

Tweet Remember when ....... saying goodby to an old year and hello to a new one, meant putting away the christmas ornaments and trying out the annual resolutions during the beginning of the year (ok. the first day of the new year) , simply waiting around for mardi gras to start. Kids are back in school, you pack away some winter coats that were worn for our 2 or 3 "cold days" and the Saints were packing up the equiment into storage putting another "building year" behind them.



Well not any more, now this new year stretch is filled with something called The Playoffs. Here it is King's Day, the first day of mardi gras and we haven't even played our first play off game. Am I actually wishing for mardi gras to be late this year so that I am not distracted? Well, lets not get carried away.



It is refreshing to have a continuation of Saints football into the new year. Its good for the city, its good for the Gulf South region and its good for us, the people. We can now carry forward those good feelings we get from the holidays and the optimism of a new year. We are not starting the year off by putting a losing season behind us and forcing ourselves to keep our heads up and find hope in something else while we wait for mardi gras to start so we can party away those sad memories. We now carry that momenteum into the new year.



And nationally, when they start to talk about mardi gras and New Orleans, as they always do, its not just Burbon Street. They are now talking about another great export of the city and part of our culture, the champions we call the Saints. And with that conversation comes mention of the recovery, and from that comes a reference to the spirit of the people, us, the resilient, the proud, and yes, the Champions.



So, to recap this all starts with football season, then Thanksgiving, then Christmas, then New Years, then, the Playoffs(possibly a little game called the Superbowl), then Mardi Gras, then French Quarter Fest, then Jazz Fest, and many other fests and events. But the summer seems to slow down a bit toward the end of August? Whats going on then? Oh yes, ...evacuation.

Mental Auto-Complete

Tweet In order to listen to someone, you need to turn off the "auto-complete" function in your brain and thoughts. When someone is speaking we tend to complete their sentences in our own minds. In the process we fill in the sentence with our own thoughts and opinions.

And most of the time we draw the wrong conclusion and blurt out a response that is wrong, way off the mark and usually has nothing to do with the conversation or the point the other person is trying to make.

So let them finish, process what was said and then respond.

Your confused response may also trigger an auto-complete in the other persons mind as well. And it can be detrimental to you. If you auto-complete and your wrong, their opinion of you is that your are the one that does not understand or does not get it.

Try it. Hopefully by turning off your auto-complete you will not have to use your spell check to make corrections.

Vision without Action is just a Dream

Tweet Most stories or biographies of business titans and tycoons usually include references to the "vision" of the person. You know, they had the vision to put a coffee cup in everyones hand or build cars using mass production. And my local Louisiana favorite, "a chicken in every pot" was the vision or claim made by Huey P. Long. (only in Louisiana could we have famous food references).

But what they don't tell you is the "action(s)" taken to turn that vision into reality. That is the intangible that never seems to get revealed or uncovered. How did they do it?

I can understand the vision at the beginning of the careers of these business giants. They had an idea and they acted on it. But something is missing. Some action is not being revealed. Or is it and we just don't see it?

Action is not just a single event. It is a constant series of events, each capitalizing on the previous.

A running back diving over the goal line at the end of the 4th quarter scoring the winning touch down is a single action. But the dedication, years of training, and the endurance and mental toughness is the result of thousands and thousands of actions.

And its the same regardless of your profession, career, or stage and role in life. You don't walk across the stage without years of sacrifice and hard work. You don't raise a successful family without a lot of hard work. And you don't make millions selling chicken by simply waking up one day and saying, Hey, i have a great idea for a recipe.

But dreams are nice too, they just don't do anything for you without action.

Things to do while in Evacuation Traffic

Tweet Part of being prepared for a storm, is to have something for your mental well-being. One thing that can add to the stress of a storm is evacuation traffic.

So here is a list of things to do while driving(or riding) at 5 miles per hour:

-Walk along side of your car and give it a nice waxing.

-Get "wave" started with car next to you

-Play "Guess What's on the Floor Mat"

-Set seat position to "lazy boy"

-Play hide and seek with petrified french fry

-turn a small profit by digging for loose change

-Play "What's That Smell?"

-Followed by "What's That Noise"

-At rest stop, try to get someone to help you change air in spare tire.

-Hold horn down and pretend that it is stuck

-Get a "horn wave" going

-Look at every car to see if you know them.....Hey its Bob...what are you doing here?

-Lament over decision to take interstate instead of back roads

-Eat all rations before the first stop

-Listen to Eat Pray Love on audio.....no, wait, sorry, that will cause more stress and depression.

-Call radio station and ask Spud how to spell "ergo"

-Prank call Godell and tell him he won a vacation on Grand Isle, but he has to go on Wednesday. Or just tell him to go &(#@*^&^@*.

-When in Baton Rouge, complain to locals that their traffic is terrible.

-and the number one thing to do while in evacuation traffic.......sing like no one is listening.

Tweet You can’t have a “Fire Sale” with out a fire


11/19/2009


by: Mark Subervielle


In the real estate world, “discount” is the “new black”. If a buyer or investor

cannot get a substantial, deep discount, there is no other incentive to buy. Pure

speculation in today’s market has to have a very compelling reason to buy other

than “it’s a good deal”. It has to be a great deal, once in a life-time, fire-sale

price.

But with out the motivation of a “fire sale”, there are no motivated fire sale

buyers. And without motivated sellers, you don’t have the discounted pricing and

a standoff is created. This “wait till the market recovers” mentality may work in

certain situations, like a well leased property with a decent tenant mix.

But vacant, partially renovated, and poorly leased or managed properties

are subject to the slightest winds of change in the market and can be

economically damaged virtually overnight.

So far there has been no accelerant to start the fire that would create a fire

sale and help this market recover. 

There is no RTC disposition type of activity where the auction of bank assets caused such a frenzy that

buyers were driving up the prices over and above what they could pay on the open market.

That type of buyer frenzy is not happening in this downturn. The economic spin

off from new purchases is what helps the recovery. And that is what is missing.

So as buyers and sellers stare at each other waiting for the other to blink, we

stand by watch the coals in the fire slowly burn out.

New Orleans, Proud to call it.....uh?

Tweet I can remember bragging to friends in my younger years, about how ass-backwards we are here in the Big Easy and south LA. I was proud to have this "unique" way of doing things. A business environment that required a Ruth's Chris "meeting" to get a deal done. A voting constituency that pollsters measured by it skin color rather than actual polls. And the complete shut down of the city during the wonderful holiday season....of course I am referring to Mardi Gras.

It was a source of pride when clients or visitors would come to town and the first thing we discuss, before we even leave the airport, was "What's for lunch?" I can remember giving seafood eating lessons to a client from CA, saying that its OK to spit out the crab shells from the crabmeat au gratin. She was a little put off by me and the advice, not to mention the shells.

We send out mixed signals that are difficult for the rest of the country to decipher. First we tout our strength and resolve to rebuild, we show a strong community banding together, helping each other out. Then the comment about the "big hole in the ground" when our leader travels to NYC and is interviewed on national TV.

As you know, the gaffs are endless. the book should be out soon.

As we, the normals, try to cover up gaffs and goofs and explain what a chocolate city is, he gets re-elected. So the nation sees crazy comments, and feels some empathy for us, and him, but the damage is done. What was once real concern, care, interest and attention to our cause, slowly has turned into disinterest, and even worse, fodder for the political humorist.

Our leaders, mayors, council members along with business men and others are dropping out of office and into the pen. Again, this was another source of dysfunctional humor I used quite often in the past. Watching Edwards go to jail was a happy day for some, but a sad day for most. How f'd up is that. We can't win. We put criminals in jail, and there is public remorse.

Its only more sad that we spend millions putting white collar criminals in jail, yet the criminals that are really slowing down our recovery are running the streets, laughing at the cops, blatantly rubbing our noses in it. And what a beautiful welcome home i had last week coming back from the airport. As i merged on to I-10 from the airport service road, the traffic was stalled. Why? Well the cops were arresting someone on the side of the interstate. They didn't pull him over at an exit. No, lets make a show out of it. Cuff 'em and let them sit on the curb so everyone coming in for the Jets game can see. How about that slogan: "Welcome to New Orleans......our crime rate is the lowest since Pre-K."

We still have no leadership. This is the problem with our city. We have leaders, just not a unified leadership that is on the same page as, well, us the citizens. Everyone has their own agenda. If we had industry come here, the line with hands held out, would be so long it would stretch from the airport leading the way straight to city hall.

Com' on man. Let's elect people with brains. They probably will not be well liked, probably will be despised by some and will certain go against the grain. But its time to get over it and put people who actually give a #@&! in office and let them make some real changes.

Starting a recovery in a recession

Tweet Are we in a recovery?.....this is July 2009, the beginning of the slow season for real estate. How can we be in a recovery during the almost certain summer slow down.

Obviously the peak of the residential home sales season revolves around the end of school so that the old homestead can be sold in time to move into and get settled in the new homestead. But once that wave of sales is over, in some markets, the activity ends. Of course, this being New Orleans, we don't follow trends like the rest of the world. But will this time be different?

First, if you believe that we are in a recovery, you must believe that real estate drives the recovery, or is at least reflective of it. You also realize the economic benefit of a real estate transaction. Each one being a mini-development that creates sales at retailers, employs contractors, a/c repair men, movers and lawn maintenance crews. It an appreciating market, a transaction increases tax revenue by automatically reassessing property values. Therefore real estate sales act as an economic stimulus. What a concept.

So if the real estate market is soft and its a buyer's market and deals abound, then where is the recovery? Where is the boon? Where are the bottom fishers? Where is the money sitting on the sidelines waiting for the bottom?

Maybe this is not the bottom. If you can recall the S&L crisis(that means your old), the core of that recovery was not just good deals on real estate, it was GREAT deals on real estate. Deals that brought out not only the bottom fishers, but the sideline money and young whippersnappers such as myself who saw more than just a bargain, they saw real upside potential. That is whats missing from this premature call on recovery.

Sure, you can get a good price on a rental or development project, but where is the end user? Where are the tenants? Are the new and renovated apartment complexes full or at 60% capacity? Maybe 60% is a good thing.

And if commercial follows residential, where are the retailers? They may be out there if they are selling drugs(the prescription kind that is). But other than drug stores or a fill-in fast food store or a discounter providing the only lighted store at night, there is little demand for new space. I think you can find a few vacant Circuit City or Linens and Things spaces around town. My favorite is a brand new shiny shopping center with for lease signs symmetrically placed in each window like guards standing watch waiting for that car to drive in and write down the leasing phone number.

This isn't painting the picture too bleak. Its simply is a broader view of what is happening on the ground versus what is happening on Wall Street.

The trickle down of the mortgage/financial bailout has started flowing back up the hill. The trickle down would work if it did what it was designed to do, which is cover the loss to the lender when a toxic asset(real estate) was sold at a loss. And its sold at a loss when a buyer gets a GREAT deal. Except the lenders are not giving anything away this go around, no S&L fire sales to clear the assets off of an insolvent banks balance sheet. Nope, this time they are trying to get market value so that they aren't the ones going back to Uncle Sam hat in hand. The public outcry of the bail out is having an effect on lenders this time. And now they choose to be responsible and not give anything away. Great, just when we need them to open up and lend and make deals, they shut the door making it exponentially more difficult to get a loan or a good deal on a foreclosed home. Its like watching a movie in reverse.

So since the GREAT deals aren't out there, and few can borrow, no one is knocking the door down to buy real estate. No real estate sales, no economic churn and a very, very slow recovery.

But at some point, a recovery has to start, even if we don't see it. And what better time than in a recession. Oh, I guess that's the point.